Apple tightens App payment control: Developers hit hard by "cutting off payments," clause 3.2(f) becomes the line of life and death

Apple tightens App payment control: Developers hit hard by "cutting off payments," clause 3.2(f) becomes the line of life and death

I. The Account Ban Wave: From "Gray Survival" to "Indiscriminate Annihilation"

• Technical blockade: Apple tracks abnormal payment data through anti-cheating algorithms and blocks the IP whitelist used by developers to evade detection.
• Report linkage: After a user or competitor reports an issue, Apple initiates an "unannounced re-review," reducing the account suspension period from 7 days to 24 hours.
• Linked Punishment: If multiple accounts under the same developer's name are involved in violations, they may be "collectively punished" and banned.

II. The background of the surge in payment transactions and Apple's response

1. Motivation for developers to bypass Apple's tax

• Commission Pressure: Apple charges a 30% commission on subscriptions and in-app purchases (which drops to 15% in subsequent years), significantly impacting high-profit categories such as games and live streaming.
• The gray area of third-party payments: Some developers circumvent detection through methods such as "official website guidance + whitelist blocking," but Apple has recently targeted and blocked such operations.

2. Apple's regulatory strategy adjustment

• Policy Update: After the EU's Digital Markets Act takes effect in 2024, Apple will be forced to allow developers to inform users of external payment methods through channels such as email, but in-app redirections will still be prohibited.
• Technical Countermeasures: Apple has strengthened its identification of domain name blocking and IP whitelists, and dynamically adjusts the review model through user behavior data (such as refund rates).

III. Hardware under pressure: service revenue becomes Apple's "new lifeline"

• Increased reliance on subscription-based models: Apple has raised its service revenue target to exceed $100 billion by 2027, with in-app purchases and subscriptions being its core profit sources (with commission rates as high as 30%).
• EU Antitrust Pressure: The EU's Digital Markets Act in 2024 forces Apple to open up to third-party app stores, but at the cost of Apple having to charge a 12%-27% commission on each external payment, further squeezing profit margins.
• China Regulatory Risk: Bloomberg reported on April 5 that the State Administration for Market Regulation is assessing an antitrust investigation into Apple's App Store and may require it to open up to third-party payments.

IV. Developer Dilemma: Surging Compliance Costs and Survival Game

• Payment link transformation: The in-app purchase system needs to be fully integrated with Apple's IAP, increasing development costs by 40%-60%.
• Commission burden: Subscription-based applications have a 30% commission in the first year, followed by 15%, with small and medium-sized developers' profits being compressed to single digits.
• Legal risk: A European developer was fined 40% of his annual income for bypassing IAP, becoming a warning case for the industry.

• Official website payment "double-edged sword": Although Apple allows external payments to be notified via email, the user conversion rate drops by 60%, and it may trigger account suspension.
• Web3 payment experiment: some developers tried to use cryptocurrency payments, but were removed by Apple due to compliance concerns.

V. The global anti-monopoly wave: How long can Apple's "walled garden" last?

• EU: Requires third-party app stores to be open by June 2025, or face a fine of 10% of global revenue (approximately $36 billion).
• Brazil: Ruling that Apple must allow external payments, with violators facing a daily fine of $43,000.
• United States: Epic Games v. Apple case enters final trial, and if Apple loses, it may be forced to open up third-party payments.

VI. The Road Ahead: Rebuilding Trust or Accelerating Division?

• Developers: Small and medium-sized teams are being squeezed out, while leading companies are shifting towards subscription models and hardware bundling (such as game console integration).
• Apple: Facing the dilemma of "user churn" and "heavy regulatory penalties," the growth rate of service business may slow down to below 10%.
• User: Short-term payment options are limited, but in the long run, they may benefit from more transparent pricing and competition.